A Guide:

STAGES OF CONFLICT AND PEACE WITH CORRESPONDING POLICY TOOLS
SITUATION 3:  CRISIS

Stage of Conflict

 Incipient violence

Environment for Interventions

 · Distrust.

· Social/political differences polarized.

· Taking up of arms.

· Threats, provocative acts, sporadic, unorganized, low-level violent acts.

· Interests perceived as incompatible; mistrust; inter-group hostility.

 · Repression, insurgency, systematic violation of human rights.

· Perceived legitimacy of national government in widespread decline.

· National mobilization.

· High intensity of conflict.

· Violence actual or imminent.

Timeframe for Action

 Short-term

Primary Objectives

 · Reduce/put restraints on specific means of coercion that can be used to carry out violent conflict.

· Block violent acts.

· Reduce tensions.

· Contain crisis.

· Freeze hostilities.

· Maintain basic security.

· Defuse political conflicts.

· Resolve political disputes.

· Create non-violent means for addressing issues in conflict.

· Limit arms.

Illustrative Policy Tools:  Crisis

Official diplomacy

 · Special envoys

· Coercive diplomacy

· Hot lines

· Good offices

 · Mediation

· Negotiations

· Conciliation

· Diplomatic sanctions

Non-official conflict management

 · Support for local conflict management/resolution mechanisms · Peace commissions

· Visits by eminent persons

Military measures

 · Confidence-bldg./security measures

· Crisis management procedures

· Military reform/professionalization

· Military restructuring/integration

 · Arms embargoes and blockades

· Power projection/threat of force

· Limited military intervention

· Deterrence

Economic and social development

 · Conditionality

· Inter-communal trade

· Economic reforms

 · Economic sanctions

· Development assistance

· Economic and resource cooperation

Political development and governance

 · Political institution-building

· Election support and monitoring

· Human rights promotion/monitoring

 · Power-sharing arrangements

· Decentralization of power