Experts: Mideast youth radicalism is “public health crisis”

January 16, 2015

5 min read

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Experts: Mideast youth radicalism is “public health crisis”

By Jillian Slutzker

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”2/3″][vc_column_text]In refugee camps across Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and other countries, more than 3 million Syrians live in limbo. Especially for those in their teens and twenties, their life plans—education, careers, marriages and families—are suspended while a violent civil war at home rages into its fourth year.

“If you go into a refugee camp, every day is Ground Hog’s day. There is no tomorrow and there is no yesterday. Every day is frozen,” said Curt Rhodes, Founder and Director of Questscope, which works across the Middle East to create social, educational and entrepreneurial opportunities for marginalized youth.

Rhodes joined other experts in youth, development and stabilization on a panel entitled “Youth Programming in Jordan and Syria,” hosted by Creative Associates International on Jan. 6.

With the spread of ISIL and other extremist groups in an already unstable region, preventing marginalized young people from joining violent extremist groups is becoming a development and security priority.

Outside of the Middle East’s conflict hotspots, many youth in transitioning countries like Egypt and divided ones like Lebanon are also adrift. With more than 100 million youth aged 15-29 in the region and a youth unemployment rate of 28 percent, economic opportunities are slim.

Authoritarian governments and nascent, backsliding democracies leave youth with the “inability to feel like they had any say not only in their governments but even in their communities,” said Richard Jaskot, Director of Stabilization and Development at Creative.

Criminal treatment breeds criminal youth

To stem radicalization among youth, Rhodes said, governments and practitioners first need to adjust the lens through which they view the problem.

In the Zaatari refugee camp in Jordan and other communities where Questscopoe works, Rhodes said youth in juvenile detention centers often report being mistreated and abused by authorities. This abuse within a system meant to reform at-risk youth can in fact lead to even more alienation and violent behavior.

“The fact that you treat them in a criminal way helps them become better criminals,” he said.

Rhodes said that rather than labeling at-risk, marginalized youth as criminals to be tracked and punished, we should view radicalization among youth as a public health crisis, looking at its causes and symptoms and striving to reduce its spread.

Countering radicalization with connection

While headlines speak of new “recruits” to groups like ISIL and “recruitment” campaigns via social media, experts say that those who join these violent groups are largely seeking out membership, “auditioning” in the words of Guillermo Cespedes, Crime and Violence Prevention Advisor at Creative who has developed youth gang and violence prevention efforts in Las Angeles and throughout Central America.

Rhodes agreed that young people who join radical, violent groups are searching for them, largely pushed by marginalization and other risk factors.

“Terrorists are looking for a place to hire them,” he said. “They don’t get recruited.”

What they are often also seeking, said Rhodes, is connection and a sense of purpose.

Many young Syrians living in camps, have lost all their relationships to death or separation and do not know where loved ones have ended up outside of the country, he said, leading to a kind of “mental health crisis.”

Adolescence and early adulthood is a time when people seek meaning and define their social identities.

But deprived of connections, living in chaos and with a world of radicalism at their fingertips, Rhodes said, “I can be searching for my social identity in Aleppo, Syria and a guy in Brighton, England who is searching for his social identity—we can find each other and we can talk. We can be economically marginalized but we are no longer politically marginalized.”

Reestablishing relationships, particularly with adults but also with peers in a supportive environment, Rhodes said, can recreate a lost sense of family, identity and relationships and can prevent youth from seeking out connections and meaning in a radical movement.

Restoring agency & opening pathways

In seemingly dead-end situations from refugee camps to authoritarian societies where young people feel they have no legitimate means to affect change, said Creative’s Jaskot, youth may reason that “if [violent extremism] is the only way you can make a difference then maybe try it.”

Giving youth avenues to regain a sense of purpose and personal agency, Rhodes said, is key to combatting extremism among youth.

“Everyone wants to know that I can do something and the thing that I am doing actually matters,” said Rhodes.

Where few opportunities for education, income, political participation and social status exist, governments and program implementers need to step in with viable opportunities for youth as alternatives to radicalism, panelists said.

Often when programs to reach marginalized youth do exist, they are ill-fitting and ineffectual having been designed by adults outside of the Middle East, said Eric Rusten, Education for Development expert at Creative and co-author of the Youth Speak methodology and toolkit, a youth-led process of investigating an issue that affects them and mobilizing community action to address it.

Rusten said that programming geared towards vulnerable youth must put youth at the center so that those doing the bulk of the talking, thinking, idea-generating and implementing are the same young people who are supposed to benefit from the program.

This leadership is empowering for young people, agreed Rhodes.

“Out of your situation, if you feel like you can tell your story and it is told in such a way that people listen to you, you feel like you are on a different trajectory,” said Rhodes.

By the thousands

Violent extremism among youth is a problem that transcends borders. Marginalized young people from the camps of Jordan to the hearts of major cities around the Middle East and in the West are susceptible to this epidemic.

To be successful, initiatives to combat violence and extremism can’t just “go after the low hanging fruit,” said Creative’s Cespedes. Programs must engage those who are most on the brink of violence and radicalization and even those who are already involved in radical groups.

Rhodes said that although many youth in the Middle East perceive that the Western model for political and economic prosperity and security has failed, this does mean those youth are unreachable.

“We have to figure out how to get in dialogue with people who don’t particularly like us and people we don’t particularly like,” he said.

Effective efforts to counter youth radicalism in the region will also require scaling up programs like Questscope and Youth Speak that have been successful at generating positive relationships, restoring personal agency and opening opportunities for marginalized youth

“You can’t do it on a hundred kids, you’ve got to think in terms of thousands,” said Rhodes.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/4″][vc_widget_sidebar sidebar_id=”sidebar-primary”][/vc_column][/vc_row]

15 development trends to watch for in 2015

January 14, 2015

6 min read

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15 development trends to watch for in 2015

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”2/3″][vc_column_text]2015 is expected to be a big year in global development, and Creative experts weighed in on the trends and changes they anticipate. From social investing to yoga, here are 15 things to watch in 2015.

1. Real-time and open data

Funders and NGOs will continue to improve data collection and management so project information is increasingly available for real-time analysis and decision-making.

A continued push for information transparency will lead more governments, funding agencies and implementers to make their data openly available. USAID helped put this on the agenda for 2015 by releasing these Development Data guidelines in fall 2014.

From Jacqui Deelstra, Associate, Technology for Development and Ayan Kishore, Senior Associate, Technology for Development

2. Answers on the poverty-growth relationship

Does macroeconomic growth for countries mean better lives and incomes for its citizens?

In 2015, we might learn the answer and just how these correlates between growth and poverty reduction work, if they exist. USAID is currently conducting a multi-country study using the Inclusive Growth Index (IGI) —a methodology to assess countries’ economic condition and the role increased trade and investment have had on the lives of individuals and households in developing countries.

Expect more research on the poverty-growth relationship from donors and development experts this year.

From Jerry Wright, Senior Director, Economic Growth Division

3. Focus on urbanization and youth migration

Cities are the next frontier for economic, technological and social development, according to the private sector. Meanwhile, youth migration patterns will affect urban development programs. Empowering and providing opportunities to young people in cities and will be a development priority in 2015.

From Bonnie Politz, Senior Advisor for Youth, and Magdalena Fulton, Senior Associate for Youth and Elizabeth Mullen, Program Associate for Youth

4. A neighborhood-based approach to crime and violence prevention

In fall 2014, Vanderbilt University released the results of a three-year study showing that community-based violence prevention programs in at-risk neighborhoods across Central America have improved residents’ perceptions of security—51% fewer residents reported being aware of murders, extortion or blackmail and 35% fewer residents reported avoiding dangerous areas out of fear of crime.

In 2015, expect implementers to focus on the neighborhood level where crime and violence prevention can generate significant results.

From Guillermo Cespedes, Director, Crime and Violence Prevention

5. More “Om”

For children and youth—particularly those at risk—mindfulness, meditation and yoga practices bring about calmer focus and inner balance, resulting in reduced anxiety and stress and greater self-control and self-awareness.

Expect to see a growing awareness of the power of these methods and an increased willingness to use them in programming.

From Eileen St. George, Director, Education in Conflict

6. Cutting-edge university innovations on electoral integrity

In 2015, nine innovative partnerships between USAID and U.S. universities will conclude, producing cutting-edge research we can expect to influence recommendations to USAID’s Center of Excellence on Democracy, Human Rights and Governance.

Out of the research, we will see innovations that strengthen programs and field missions including an Election Results Evaluation Tool; a sophisticated forensic instrument to assess whether elections are free and fair; findings on whether vote-buying efforts truly affect how citizens vote; and research on the impact of election observers on fraud, political representation and accountability.

From Tihana Bartulac Blanc, Senior Associate, Electoral Education and Integrity

7. Mainstreaming technology for development & peacebuilding

Development professionals in 2014 increasingly discussed lessons learned and best practices for the use of technology for development, including the Principles for Digital Development, an initiative supported by a large coalition of funding agencies and international organizations.

Peacebuilding actors also generated new technologies and initiatives to stem conflict and address humanitarian crises. In 2014, USIP launched the USIP PeaceTech lab. These tools can be used to combat gangs and terrorists who use technology as a means for recruitment and intimidation

In 2015, using this knowledge, technology interventions will become even more integral to development work in all sectors, including peacebuilding and conflict resolution, and will be better designed and implemented.

From Jacqui Deelstra, Associate, Technology for Development and Ayan Kishore, Senior Associate, Technology for Development

8. More social investing

While social investing became trendy in the United States in the 1980s, it did not come into vogue in development assistance until much later, when movements such as the Calvert Social Fund, the Clinton Foundation and the Business Call to Action emerged.

Uptake on social investing by corporations and donors may have been slow, but the impacts of social investing have been impressive. Now, it’s a key feature on the post-2015 development agenda.

From Jerry Wright, Senior Director, Economic Growth Division

9. A move beyond “training” to human and institutional capacity development

With USAID focusing more on human and institutional capacity development, implementers are following suit and reshaping their approaches.

Consistent with this trend, Creative is moving beyond just training to implementing its Collaborative Approach to Performance Support that builds individual, organizational and systemic capacity with diverse results-based tools.

From Michael McCabe, Senior Associate, Training and Capacity Development

10. Youth voice and authentic engagement

In the past year, we saw young people shape discussions on the UN’s post 2015 development goals; Malala Yousafzai receive the Nobel Prize for her courageous work to promote girls’ education; and closer to home, organizations like the Alliance for International Youth Development amplify youth voice at the Interaction Forum 2014. Programs designed with and by youth are more targeted, effective, and sustainable according to global research and evidence generated by Creative’s youth-led programs in Morocco and Central America.

Embedding youth voice and authentic youth engagement will be critical to all aspects of programs in 2015.

From Bonnie Politz, Senior Advisor for Youth, Magdalena Fulton, Senior Associate for Youth and Elizabeth Mullen, Program Associate for Youth

11. Blended learning and leveraging mobiles

By the end of 2015, the global e-learning market is expected to double from its 2011 worth of $35 billion to almost $70 billion. The development field is embracing the e-learning revolution that allows staff, partners and beneficiaries to learn “soft” and “hard” skills anytime, anywhere.

CreativeU.com and other platforms are aggregating quality, mobile-friendly courses and converting formerly instructor-led trainings into dynamic models that blend in-person with mobile learning, which have demonstrated better long term retention.

This year, mobile apps and educational games will continue to advance, giving youth engaging tools to interact with curriculum and create and share their stories, real or fiction, in ways that stimulate their minds creatively, emotionally, intellectually and with purpose.

From Michael McCabe, Senior Associate, Training and Capacity Development, and Eileen St. George, Director, Education in Conflict

From Eileen St. George, Director, Education in Conflict

12. A “gender data revolution”

In December 2014, Hilary Clinton announced six new partnerships to extend Data2X, an initiative launched in 2012 to spur a “gender data revolution” and advance gender equality and women’s empowerment globally through evidence-based policy and programs. Expect an even stronger push for gender-relevant data this year along with more demand for lessons learned in gender and development.

Donors, including USAID, will continue to emphasize gender integration in projects and require more systematic approaches that involve gender analysis and strategies, draw on data and evidence and demonstrate results.

From Rekha Martin, Senior Associate, Gender

13. Using effective local governance to build state efficacy

Strengthening effective local governance will be a priority in 2015. The Busan New Deal and USAID Local Systems’ Framework present a platform that calls for better understanding of the political economies of countries and communities to meet this challenge.

State-society relations will be a key focus area this year—and in the post-2015 development agenda—in achieving peacebuilding and state-building.

From Deborah Kimble, Director, Governance and Civil Society

14. Enhanced career preparation and job entry programs

Today, the fastest growing jobs throughout the world are “digital” and technology-based. Youth will seek out training this year in computer and technology skills in order to take advantage of the economic opportunities in today’s economy. Green jobs and investments in agriculture will also create employment opportunities for youth.

From Bonnie Politz, Senior Advisor for Youth, Magdalena Fulton, Senior Associate for Youth and Elizabeth Mullen, Program Associate for Youth

15. Measuring human capital development

There are three strands of measurement for evaluating success and returns on investments in human capital: education, health and economic returns to individuals and households. It took a lot of work and debate for the development community to come to this consensus.

Now in 2015, Creative’s experts will work with and alongside both USAID and the Millennium Challenge Corporation to define how best to design projects that improve human capital development, and also measure their impact on markets, economies and—in the end—standards of living for people in developing countries.

From Jerry Wright, Senior Director, Economic Growth Division[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/12″][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/4″][vc_widget_sidebar sidebar_id=”sidebar-primary”][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Tanzania: TZ21’s Approach Creates an “Educational Buzz”

January 13, 2015

1 min read

TZ21 brought a full reading approach that used technology, teacher training and support to boost literacy rates in 900 primary schools in Tanzania. The noise coming from classrooms is evidence that the methods are working.

How Raj Shah reshaped USAID

January 8, 2015

5 min read

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When the U.S. Agency for International Development celebrated its 50th anniversary in 2011, Raj Shah told me and others at the agency, in so many words, that we should make sure USAID doesn’t live to see 100.

As USAID’s Chief of Staff and then its Chief Operating Officer for the first half of Shah’s tenure, I knew Shah did not in any way want to kill the world’s largest, most important development assistance donor. Quite the opposite in the short-term.

He felt, rightly, though, that if we’re still doing assistance the same way 50 years in, then we haven’t done enough. If we change, accelerate and scale the way we do things, then we shouldn’t be around—at least not in the same form—to “celebrate” 100 years of providing aid.

Shah reminded all of us that development assistance should be around only for so long.

At 50 years, there was a lot for USAID to celebrate. During the anniversary celebration, he and Vice President Joe Biden spoke of the agency’s legacy of developing and scaling innovative breakthroughs—from the seeds of the green revolution, to microfinance and oral rehydration therapy—that saved lives, created opportunity and advanced human development.

As USAID Administrator for the past five years, Shah brought more life to the agency than it has seen arguably since its beginnings during the Vietnam War. That is certainly the view from the White House, Capitol Hill and Foggy Bottom.

Shah has led a series of development assistance reforms, under the heading of USAID Forward, and created the Global Development Lab. In conjunction with a smart, committed team of agency veterans, dedicated development experts and civil servants, new Development Leadership Initiative officers, and political appointees, Shah focused on beefing up the agency, its staff and expertise; on strategic partnerships and local solutions; on science, technology and innovation; and on evidence, learning and scaling.

Those efforts, and, more important, whether they stick, will be his legacy.

The need to inspire and “manage the building”

Raj-Shah-ebola Within seconds of meeting Raj for the first time, one sees his energy, commitment, charm, quickness, smarts and ambitions. He is inspiring. If his negatives are fewer and harder to figure, he points them out to you.

He doesn’t point out his own weaknesses simply as an excuse, though. He is capable and ambitious enough to want to address them.

With senior staff, Shah established and dedicated time to an Administrator’s Leadership Council that aimed to solve management problems and provide greater support to and engagement with Agency staff at all levels.

The best leaders know that the most effective way forward is to bring everyone forward together, asking others to lead the way as well.

When we left USAID, separately at our going-away parties, another senior political appointee and I both quoted Maya Angelou: “I’ve learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.”

Including all the “smartest” players to end poverty

raj-shah-in-middle-east — Photo by: USAID

Shah often cited James Wolfensohn as saying when he was World Bank President: “We’re not the smartest in the room anymore. The smartest in the room is the room.”

Shah, along with many others in development, fully realizes and works to leverage the fact that government-funded aid agencies are not the only big or important players in development. Washington, London and Paris are not the only key centers generating funding, leadership and innovation.

Wealthy individuals and their foundations put billions of dollars, pesos, pounds, rands and rupees into international development assistance.

Corporate foundations and even business arms are becoming much bigger players too in terms of their active involvement and funding. These are not just large multinational corporations based in the U.S. or Europe but also national and regional companies born in the developing world that are now making not just a name and a profit, but also a difference, in development.

The most important change may be connection to and leveraging of the ideas, innovations and solutions coming from a broader, deeper swath of people and organizations globally and at every level. People who have long held knowledge of their own development needs and solution but have never had the opportunity to develop, market and implement their ideas are now playing a larger role in developing their families, communities, countries and world.

Shah says, “Our agency must serve as a platform that connects the world’s biggest development challenges to development problem solvers all around the world. We recognize that talent is everywhere, but opportunity is not.”

President Barack Obama, who issued the first ever Presidential Directive on Development, said in his 2013 State of the Union address that the U.S. will join its allies to eradicate extreme poverty in the next two decades by “connecting more people to the global economy; by empowering women; by giving our young and brightest minds new opportunities to serve, and helping communities to feed, and power, and educate themselves….”

The new Sustainable Development Goals, being drafted now to follow the Millennium Development Goals that end this year, put a big focus on inclusion to end poverty. This means not only inclusion among those being brought out of poverty, but also inclusion and partnership among those seeking, building and implementing solutions.

A poverty-ending legacy?

As Raj Shah prepares to leave USAID and the Obama Administration next month, the focus will be on his legacy as USAID Administrator.

Raj Shah will be known as the Administrator who was energetic, smart, dedicated and ambitious, and who recognized, inspired and leveraged the people, leadership and ideas inside and beyond USAID necessary for a committed and permanent focus on the partnerships, innovation and scale that will eventually put US donor assistance (and all international donors) out of business because poverty-ending solutions will be successful and sustained locally?

A veteran Foreign Service officer who is still at USAID told me this about her recent posting in USAID’s New Delhi Mission. Realizing that there are 170,000 millionaires and 117 billionaires in India, she wanted to get some of them involved as partners in development efforts nationally and further afield. (Shah has promoted and partnered with India on a triangular partnership to bring Indian innovation and leadership to Africa.) Indian colleagues at the Mission told her the rich only give to Hindu temples.

In line with Shah, she persisted in her idea to ask them to give to development—to help pay to scale up some of the amazing, Indian-born poverty-reduction solutions.

Highly loved and lauded Agency Counselor Dave Eckerson wrote this in a blog just before retiring: “The spirit of USAID Forward is in the hearts and minds of everyone in the Agency. For me, the reforms are in the rearview mirror, and they are leading us to the lane ahead. They are our new reality…and as we take up the president’s call to end extreme poverty in a generation, they will be on the horizon as well.”

I believe that a focus on “we-cannot-do-this-alone” strategic partnerships, and real scaling of development innovations, local solutions and evidence-based results—will significantly diminish or even eradicate several of the world’s toughest, clearest poverty indicators. This will be Raj Shah’s legacy.

Only time will tell. Hopefully, it will not take 50 more years.

Sean C. Carroll is Senior Director at Creative Associates International.

Debate Over E-learning a “First World problem” for many youth

December 23, 2014

3 min read

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Segundo, a young Embera Indian and indigenous environmental leader, guided my kids on a hot sticky trek through the Darien jungle explaining the incredibly rich biodiversity of this economically poor region of Panama. He leads these eco-treks as a volunteer through a local NGO, and with very limited job opportunities for Embera here, I was curious how Segundo made his living.

Segundo told me that he had not gotten much of a formal education: school was too far away from his indigenous village, not to mention that it had 50 students to a class and poor teaching. However, he proudly talked about how he now fixes air conditioners in this hottest corner of Latin America. When I asked how he got this training, he flashed his smile and said his teacher was, “YouTube por supuesto,” (YouTube of course).”

Segundo represents a different side to what has become an international debate on Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) and e-learning, in which a growing number of op-eds, blogs and conference debate sessions question e-learning’s effectiveness, return on investment, sustainability, completion rate and quality.

These are valid conversations for a growing industry that is predicted to have $52 billion a year in investments by 2016. But the reality is that many of the 357 million out of school and out of work young people worldwide don’t care whether social scientists think e-learning is an appropriate way for them to gain skills and knowledge.

Instead, across Latin America, Africa and other regions, young adults like him are flocking not only to YouTube educational videos, but to e-learning aggregator sites such as www.Alison.com, www.CreativeU.com and Coursera to get free access to just-in-time learning—even if it only gains them a certificate of competency completion and not a formal accreditation.

People like Segundo don’t always have time to wait for the results of international debate. And their need and desire to access educational content is not changed by the statistic that less than 10 percent of students in the U.S. finish MOOCs—a fact commonly used to temper the optimism of e-learning’s potential.

At the recent Online Educa global e-learning conference, delegates from African countries also highlighted that the narrow Western definition of MOOCs as being only online multi-week courses offered by universities overlooks the technological limitations in some countries caused by limited bandwidth or Internet connectivity.

Instead, blended learning MOOC approaches from India to Nigeria to Central America have historically more often used Massive Open “On-Air” Courses through radio distance learning, and increasingly access to learning via their Android devices to deliver agricultural or literacy training.

The bottom line as highlighted at the Online Educa conference was the importance of more localized content in local languages. It is pretty intuitive, learners want knowledge contextualized to their situations and in their language rather than just an off-the-shelf example designed for a generic learner.

Colleagues also emphasized that what mattered most to many users in developing countries was either getting certificates to help with employment opportunities or just getting the pieces of information they most need when they need it, be that a course to advance or improve as a teacher or a fixer of air conditioners in the Darien.

For now, Creative will continue to support the trends and the appropriate methodologies and learning effectiveness of online or blended learning platforms and courses, while also building the capacity of our partners to access what they need, when they need it.

For better Mideast strategy U.S. should “Keep Calm and Carry On”

December 19, 2014

6 min read

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Beirut—The iconic British government poster—Keep Calm and Carry On—issued in 1939 epitomized the resolve that came to be associated with British resilience through six long years of World War II, much of it on the losing end, before victory in 1945.

Threatened by jihadist spillover from Syria’s civil war, internal conflict between radical Sunnis and Shiites, political paralysis, the burden of over a million Syrian refugees added to its population of 4 million, and the general turmoil gripping the Middle East—Lebanon carries on.

From here, one looks at some of the political dysfunction and fear-mongering in Washington—rumors and sensationalism about ISIS suicide bombers pouring across the Rio Grande, Ebola coming to America, the Caliphate engulfing the Middle East, Russia and China edging out a weakened West because America cannot or will not lead, and a “sluggish” economy.

By comparison, Lebanon, which really does have ISIS inside its borders and other immediate political, economic and social threats, seems the paragon of calm amidst the storm.

Our floundering is disconcerting, more so because it is entirely self-inflicted. We are a great power, but we are in need of a national intervention. We could begin with a unified and consistent policy toward the greater Middle East—not as we would have it be, but as it is.

All sovereign states act in ways their leaders perceive to be in their interests. Syria’s Bashar Assad believes his fight against what is overwhelmingly a Sunni insurgency is existential. Regime supporters— Alawi, Christian and Druze— largely share that view. They need only look to the atrocities committed by ISIS against Alawis, Yazidis, Kurds, Shiites, Christians and non-compliant Sunnis to reinforce their legitimate fears.

Russia supports Syria because Assad is a decades-long ally and one of its last outposts of influence in the Middle East. Iran has invested significant blood and treasure in Syria to support its distant coreligionists and extend its influence from Lebanon through Syria and Iraq. Saudi Arabia and Turkey want to counter Iran by ousting Assad and creating a Sunni majority government in Damascus, though they have supported different proxies.

Iraq is a sectarian nightmare with neither the Shiite majority nor the minority Sunnis Arabs and Kurds willing to be ruled by any other than their own kind. All of Iraq’s neighbors have interests in supporting one faction or the other, and they do. The combination of the Iraq War, the Arab Spring and their fallout stirred this toxic brew, out of which emerged ISIS.

Irrespective of whether everyone, including the United States, was too slow to recognize the potent danger of ISIS, its blitzkrieg to the gates of Baghdad this summer and fall and its unspeakable atrocities had the salutary effect of aligning virtually every state’s interests against it. (The exception of course is the tide of would-be jihadists who have flocked to the black flag of ISIS.)

Aligned interests are not necessarily united interests. Turkey embraces multiple interests and, for the moment, relegates the containment and degradation of ISIS to a distant third behind dethroning Assad and dealing with its Kurdish problem. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States remain wary of enabling any advantage to Iran.

Jordan supports the US-led coalition against ISIS, but confronts its own internal security challenges and is wary of enabling Iranian regional influence by degrading ISIS. Yemen, Egypt, Libya and the rest of North Africa are too preoccupied with their own internal challenges to offer much more than moral support, if that.

Indeed the tide of foreign fighters filling the ranks of ISIS flows from many of the very countries whose governments support the defeat of ISIS.

Israel has its own calculi, which do not include degrading ISIS at the expense of empowering Iranian influence over Syria, not to mention empowering its near enemy, Hezbollah.

This is the Middle East as it is, with which we have to contend. It is messy, confounding, duplicitous, treacherous, unwanted and overwhelming-—all the more reason the United States needs to actually be united and clear-eyed on our interests and everyone else’s. From such realpolitik, realistic objectives, strategy and tactics emerge.

President Obama has been hammered by those across the political spectrum over his unwillingness to plunge headfirst into the Syrian civil war, either by providing more than token arms and training to the “moderate” Syrian armed opposition, sending in Special Forces advisors, bombing Syrian regime forces or establishing a no-fly zone over parts of Syria.

He was right to resist overt military intervention in yet another civil war, with virtually no prospect of a good outcome and the sure prospect of the expenditure of more blood and treasure. Unfortunately, he failed to clearly articulate this to the country and its allies, giving the impression of confusion and indecision.

The administration was slow to recognize the peril ISIS presented to Iraq and the region, and initially reluctant to commit US air assets and advisors to stem the ISIS onslaught, after the collapse of the Iraqi army and security forces.

However, President Obama was right to insist the Iraqis must be the agents of their own salvation; to recognize the malevolent role the Maliki government played in the rise of ISIS and the collapse of the Iraqi forces; and to orchestrate the ouster of Maliki, before committing significant support.

The shock-and-awe advance of ISIS has been largely blunted in Iraq, including the Kurdish autonomous region, with the help of US arms, coalition air strikes and, yes, Iranian military assistance. While the administration rightly emphasized its efforts were focused on degrading ISIS in Iraq, it finally hit ISIS strongholds in Syria with significant air strikes. It was slow to understand the strategic significance of the Kurdish defense of Kobane, even though the town itself had no strategic value, and too solicitous of the interests of Turkey in doing nothing to aid the Kurds fighting there.

One can argue that the commitment of US air assets could be more robust, and the hard refusal to commit Special Forces advisors and forward air controllers to some Iraqi and Kurdish combat units is baffling, though understandable from the viewpoint of domestic political realities.

But overall, the administration has gotten it about right. What is missing is a clear articulation of our interests in enabling Iraqi ground forces to degrade, contain and ultimately diminish ISIS. Syria is a related, but different problem with different interests.

It is a vagary of war that the US degrading ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra frees the Syrian regime, to some extent, to focus on defeating the other more “moderate” anti-regime combatants. But it must be remembered that although both ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra have fought each other, they have united to decimate other anti-regime elements.

The defeat of the Assad regime by either would enable a blood bath against regime combatants, minorities and moderate Sunni combatants and civilians. The imminent defeat of the Assad regime is emphatically not in the West’s interest. The degradation and containment of ISIS is.

In 2004, U.S. General John Abizaid, then-Commander of US Central Command, coined the phrase “The Long War” to describe the enduring challenge posed by al-Qaida and other Islamic extremist groups. The term was not welcomed by pundits who prefer quick wars with tidy outcomes, but it was prophetic.

ISIS is a manifestation of The Long War, as are the other jihadist derivatives in Syria, Yemen, Egypt, the Maghreb, Nigeria and South Asia. That war will last generations, and the West and its allies must be prepared to fight it as such.

More the reason for the United States and its allies to put its domestic houses in order, articulate a clear strategy and tactics to prevail, and “keep calm and carry on.”

James Stephenson is a Senior Advisor at Creative Associates International. This blog represents the views of the author alone and not those of Creative Associates International.

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ISIS and the Syria inflection point

Who will fight against ISIS?

Ownership the key to post-2015 development

December 11, 2014

5 min read

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Ownership the key to post-2015 development

By Jillian Slutzker

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”2/3″][vc_column_text]As the Millennium Development Goals end, today’s development practitioners must chart new goals that capitalize on programmatic successes, improve shortcomings and take into account markedly different realities on the ground, according to a panel of experts.

“It is a more complex and difficult environment than it was when the MDGS were formulated,” said U.S. Ambassador James Michel, a former U.S. Agency for International Development official and author of “Shaping the New Development Agenda,” speaking at a Dec. 9 panel on the same topic.

Fifteen years after the Millennium Development Goals were designed, development has changed, panelists said. The private sector is now a key player in stimulating growth. A surge in intrastate conflicts have rendered millions more vulnerable and less accessible. And good governance, rights and inclusion are priorities alongside economic progress.

In response, the development industry is “changing-both in the goals it is setting for itself and the way development is funded,” said Leland Kruvant, President of Creative Associates International, which co-hosted the discussion with the Center for International Private Enterprise.

Groups like the UN High Level Panel of Eminent Persons on the Post-2015 Development Agenda, which has proposed 12 new goals, and the Open Working Group on Sustainable Development Goals, which has proposed 17 goals, have taken these trends into account, said Michel.

Shifting paradigms

development_agenda-5 With the emergence of new players in development—from donor blocs with members like Brazil and India to the private sector—the way the aid industry goes about development must change, panelists said. Donors are no longer conceiving of a North-South aid flow but rather a true global partnership.

The emphasis on the word “partner” in USAID’s new mission statement “forces us to think in cross-cutting ways,” said Tony Pippa, Deputy Assistant Administrator in the agency’s Bureau of Policy.

These new partnerships will capitalize on innovations in technology and development, Pippa said, and will prioritize local solutions and developing country ownership to ensure lasting outcomes.

Equally important, panelists said, is setting goals that center on inclusive growth, effective and accountable democratic institutions and climate sustainability—all critical elements to success in the post-2015 era.

“This paradigm shift in development is something that I think the US really welcomes,” Pippa said.

Private sector leadership

The private sector has long been a contributor to international aid, but the ways in which business invests in emerging markets today marks a move from philanthropy to smart social impact investing.

“Bill Gates doesn’t write checks anymore,” J.W. Wright, head of Creative’s Economic Growth Division, told the audience. “He writes programs and policies, and that is changing the dialogue.”

By investing in development, private companies can improve their “triple bottom line”— benefiting people, the planet and profits, wrote Bradford Strickland, economic growth expert at Creative, and Charito Kruvant, the company’s CEO, in their paper “Making Positive Social Impact an Everyday Part of International Business.”

As the development industry seeks to leverage the interests of the private sector, they should reach out to other entities besides big names like Microsoft and the Gates Foundation, said John D. Sullivan, Executive Director of the Center for International Private Enterprise.

“We always talk about public-private partnerships, and we think that means we are going to find a big multinational corporation to a form a partnership,” he said.

Small and medium enterprises in developing countries are not only valuable, he said, but in many cases, are essential to creating inclusive, sustainable growth.

Particularly in conflict and post-conflict settings, engaging the private sector can accelerate recovery and growth.

Sullivan said the informal sector, which according to the World Bank makes up from 25 percent to 40 percent of annual output in Asia and Africa, should also be brought into to economic growth efforts. Unlocking the potential of informal sector workers will be a boon to developing economies.

Beyond traditional partnerships, companies should also engage in dialogue with governments, Sullivan said, on how to create enabling environments for growth and investment. Without these institutional frameworks, inclusive growth and the other sustainable development goals will be hard to achieve.

Reaching the most vulnerable

Nowhere are these goals more difficult to achieve than in fragile and conflict-affected states.

More than 1.5 billion poor people live in places plagued by conflict and fragility, and more than half of the populations in post-conflict states live in poverty, according to the World Bank.

development_agenda-14 “This is a class of countries for whom special needs are required if you really want development,” said Pauline Baker, President Emeritus of the Fund for Peace and contributing author to Creative’s series on Economic Growth, Fragility and Resilience.

Development progress is typically charted through indicators and data, which are hard to obtain in a crisis context. The Sustainable Development Goals, for example, stipulate a daunting 169 targets.

In these environments, Baker said, a census has often not been conducted for decades, records of land ownership are nonexistent and records like voter registration can be subject to political manipulation.

By only viewing development in a kind of “antiseptic way” and looking at economic indicators alone, Baker said, “you’re really writing off a whole class of conflict-affected states”

The new agenda, Baker said, must address the humanitarian and development needs of these most vulnerable people and build the resilience of societies and states to overcome fragility.

Development implementers cannot ignore these critical groups—including a surging youth population, millions of refugees and internally displaced people, and women who have been blocked out of political and economic development processes.

But reaching these populations will require some innovation.

“We are going to have to be more creative and come up with effective methods by which we can work in places coming out of conflict and achieve those development gains,” said Pippa.

Today’s development policymakers certainly have hurdles to overcome as they prepare for the post-2015 world, but with stronger partnerships and shared knowledge, these experts are optimistic.

“The potential benefits and the quality of the work to date provides grounds for hope and optimism that these efforts will contribute greatly to a sustainable world of freedom, opportunity and dignity for all,” Michel wrote in “Shaping the New Development Agenda”.

“The outcome cannot be guaranteed,” he wrote. “But the vision is certainly worth pursuing.”

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Inequality, unemployment prevent growth

November 17, 2014

3 min read

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Inequality, unemployment drive conflict, prevent growth: Creative expert

By Jillian Slutzker

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”2/3″][vc_column_text]Economic inequality and unemployment, common in many Middle Eastern countries, drive conflict. Companies, governments and development practitioners should tackle these sources of fragility to stimulate sustainable growth, said J.W. Wright of Creative Associates International during a speech in Washington, D.C.

To attract foreign investment and jumpstart growth, however, countries must first attain a threshold level of stability and resilience, said Wright, who leads the Economic Growth Division.

Wright spoke to business leaders and diplomats at the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations’ 23rd Annual Arab-U.S. Policymakers Conference on Oct. 29, which had discussions about how to spur economic growth, investment and human capital in the Arab Gulf countries and throughout the Middle East.[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]

Examining growth, grievance and conflict

Citing the results of recent study by Creative called “Exploring the Correlates of Economic Growth and Inequality in Conflict Affected Environments: Fault Lines and Routes of Recovery,” Wright said that “inequity was considered more a driver of conflict than the level of poverty. And class inequity in employment was a larger driver of conflict than unemployment itself.”

Creative is exploring these concepts and issues of global economic policy and investment in two research series—Trends in Global Development and Economic Growth, Fragility and Resilience.

Speaking on a panel with experts and dignitaries including former U.S. Ambassador to Qatar Patrick Theros, Wright said the international community must dig deeper than basic economic indicators to address inequities that perpetuate group grievance and preclude growth.

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Youth unemployment and instability

As a case study to highlight the inequality-conflict relationship, Wright referenced Egypt, where unemployment has shot up to nearly 13 percent since the January 2011 revolution, according to the International Labour Organization.

A surge of employment in Egypt’s informal sector in the last three years has done little to abate the crisis.

“Jobs in the informal sector aren’t permanent, aren’t protected by labor laws and don’t get formal investment,” Wright said.

Causing further instability is the fact those most affected by swells in unemployment are largely youth—particularly the college-educated— and the middle class, “groups that once provided stability,” Wright explained.

In the Middle East, more than 30 percent of the population is from 15 to 29 years old, or over 100 million people, according to the Brookings Institution. More than 29 percent of these young people are unemployed, data from the International Labour Organization shows.

In Egypt, the trend is even more pronounced with almost half of the population under age 25, which means a flood of new job-seekers entering steep competition for very few jobs each year. Nearly 87 percent of Egypt’s unemployed are from 15 to 29 years old, with college-educated youth being the most adversely affected, a recent Brookings Institution paper noted.

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Investing in the local workforce

Exacerbating this economic instability, Wright cited findings in Creative’s recent study that economic inequality and the availability of jobs directly affects citizens’ perceptions of government legitimacy.

Solving this problem is not as easy as creating new jobs alone, Wright explained. Private sector jobs must be transparent and seen as legitimate by the population.

“Less than one in six private sector workers has either a formal contract or social insurance,” writes Pauline Baker, President Emeritus of the Fund for Peace, in “Fragility in Revolutionary Egypt,” a research endeavor supported by Creative.

“If youth—and it is the educated youth who are the most disaffected— if they want jobs but they don’t trust the private sector, then we’ve got a real problem,” Wright told fellow panelists and the audience.

Remedying these economic sources of fragility and drivers of conflict will not be quick nor easy. But Wright does have a suggestion on where companies and investors can begin.

“When your companies make investments, let’s think a little bit more,” said Wright. “Let’s think about putting workforce development for the local population into the programs and operations.”

By providing relevant skills and job opportunities for the unemployed classes and youth in the Middle East, companies and international development implementers can help reduce the inequalities that drive conflict and support national and regional economies to truly thrive.

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Nigeria – Education Crisis Response Program

Program

2 min read

A violent insurgency has wreaked havoc on parts of Nigeria, forcing some 2.2 million people from their homes—one of the largest concentrations of internally displaced persons in Africa. Of that total, approximately 1 million are school-aged children and youth who have been set adrift inside the country, ripped from their communities and their schools.

With the magnitude of the situation in Northeastern Nigeria, the U.S. Agency for International Development, along with state officials and nongovernmental organizations, stepped in with the Education Crisis Response program. The implementation was led by Creative Associates International.

Launched in October 2014, the three-year Nigeria Education Crisis Response program expanded access to quality learning opportunities for displaced, out-of-school children and youth ages 6 to 17. It focused on Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe and Yobe states.

In partnership with the International Rescue Committee and more than 30 Nigerian organizations, the project also engaged traditional and religious leaders to provide safe, accessible locations for classes, to increase community support for the learners and to ensure sustainability of the activities.

Open to children of all ethnicities and religions, the program created 1,241 non-formal learning centers, located in churches, mosques, Qur’anic schools and other locations.

Using a proven curriculum, the displaced children received basic education, with an emphasis on math and literacy. In addition, the centers provided vital psychological and social services to the often traumatized pupils—many of whom had witnessed horrendous acts of violence.

Learn more about one girl’s survival and rebound by clicking here to read the story and watch the video.

In each of the non-formal learning centers, the Nigeria Education Crisis Response program improved the quality of teaching and learning materials. Class sizes were limited to ensure greater attention for the students, particularly since some may have been absent from formal schooling for up to two years.

Classroom teachers—also called “facilitators”—were selected from the communities where the internally displaced children currently reside. In preparation for the unique challenges facing the students and educators, teachers were put through a five-day training course to create a friendly and welcoming learning environment for the displaced children, incorporating group activities and recreation (a break from the usually more formal lecture-type settings of most Nigerian classrooms).

To learn more about these facilitators, please click here to see this story and video.

For older students, the Education Crisis Response program incorporated additional classes to provide skills that they may use to generate much-needed income that can be used to support their families.

Tanzania: “Whole school” transformations for a 21st century Tanzania

November 12, 2014

1 min read

With enrollment rates many countries would boast about, Tanzanian primary schools seemed to be in great shape. But the numbers masked a problem: learning outcomes were abysmal. By taking a whole school approach, Creative’s TZ21 project put the focus back on education.

Tanzania: Teacher Training, Mentoring and Coaching Brings Learning to Life

November 12, 2014

1 min read

Primary school classrooms in Tanzania were all about two things: “chalk and talk.” Overstuffed rows of students were bored in these traditional classes, but worse—they weren’t learning. By training teachers on new, interactive methods and giving them the coaching and mentoring to keep it up, they’re creating more engaging classrooms and a love of learning among kids.

Program to create educational opportunities for out-of-school, displaced Nigerians

November 5, 2014

3 min read

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Program to create educational opportunities for out-of-school, displaced Nigerians

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”2/3″][vc_column_text]Nov. 5, 2014 – More than 54,000 out-of-school and internally displaced children and youth in three fragile northern Nigerian states will be the target of a new initiative that provides basic education and support services through formal and non-formal learning, Creative Associates International announced.

Funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development, the new project seeks to expand access to quality education opportunities for displaced and out-of-school children and youth ages 6-17 in Bauchi, Gombe and Adamawa states—where violence and insecurity have led to their absence from classrooms.

The Nigeria Education Crisis Response program plans to increase the availability of safe and protective learning spaces, and integrate core academic subjects, life skills and wraparound services like socio-emotional support.

“This program targets some of the most vulnerable children in the world: girls and boys living in a tumultuous environment where schools themselves have become targets of violence,” says Charito Kruvant, Creative’s CEO. “By creating safe learning opportunities within and outside of schools, we can preserve the prospects of kids who might otherwise be left out.”

Creative is implementing the three-year, $15 million Nigeria Education Crisis Response program in partnership with the International Rescue Committee and more than 30 Nigerian civil society organizations.

Nigeria has more out-of-school children today than any country in the world, according to the United Nations—10.5 million—of whom 60 percent are girls living in the North. Violent attacks and kidnappings have forced schools to close and thousands of families to flee with their school-age children.

Violence and insecurity have created uneven and worrisome levels of dropout in some schools and overcrowding in others, limiting the access of internally displaced children and youth, and burdening host communities and teachers.[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]

Previous success augurs impact for youth and adolescent girls

The program builds on Creative’s previous work in northern Nigeria. Its USAID-funded Nigeria Northern Education Initiative strengthened basic education systems in Bauchi and Sokoto states by working with the government to address learning, teaching, school management, parental participation and responsiveness to children’s needs—including orphans and vulnerable children.

In addition to training more than 3,500 teachers on literacy, math, life skills and psychosocial counseling, that project realized a 33 percent boost in student enrollment, with girls registering an impressive 38 percent jump.

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Increasing access through non-formal education

The Nigeria Education Crisis Response program will expand access to quality, protective and relevant alternative educational opportunities for internally displaced and out-of-school children and youth through 1,176 non-formal learning centers—some set up for adolescent girls in particular. Along with supporting these centers, which accept children of all ethnicities and religions the project will undergird opportunities offered by churches, formal schools, community centers and other places that address the needs of girls, orphans and vulnerable children, displaced persons and other deprived youth.

It will establish non-formal learning centers in Qur’anic and church schools in order to incorporate life skills classes, student support services that are traditionally absent and a core academic curriculum that includes literacy, numeracy, Social Studies, and Basic Sciences.

In each of the educational environments it supports or establishes, the Nigeria Education Crisis Response program will improve the quality of teaching and learning materials for literacy, math and life skills.

It will also work to increase community engagement and support for schooling. In this way, parents and community members will be aware of the new educational opportunities, understand and value the services they provide and support enrollment.

And by increasing state and local government and civil society support for non-formal education and alternative education options, the Nigeria Education Crisis Response project seeks to not only ensure collaboration but generate sustained funding and policy support from the state.

Jerrold Keilson, Vice President and Senior Director of Creative’s Education for Development Division, emphasizes the project’s focus on access and quality.

“Working with teachers, engaging communities so they can support their schools and revitalizing classroom materials so real learning takes place in classrooms all contribute to the project’s long-term success,” he says.

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