Electoral Violence Prediction Market

Violence can erupt throughout an election cycle. The Electoral Violence Prediction Market is a first-of-its-kind, online interactive tool that forecasts real-time conflict dynamics to help practitioners and policymakers prevent and mitigate electoral violence.

Through a unique combination of quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods, EVPM helps experts understand and prioritize risks for electoral violence. While the quantitative forecast analyzes complex datasets and performs classification and prediction tasks, the qualitative forecast is based on academic and expert inputs on the type and profile of violence risks in a given election.

The market’s quantitative forecasting dimension employs the Countries at Risk for Electoral Violence dataset developed by King’s College London, which contains information on incidents of electoral violence profiles.

At the same time, the market crowdsources predictions from a group of about 80 experts in electoral violence, conflict and security studies and electoral assistance from academia, non-governmental organizations and think tanks, as well as independent consultants.

These quantitative and qualitative analyses are aggregated to determine risk level in 138 countries with elections in 2018 and 2019.

The EVPM is funded by the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Conflict Stabilization Operations and implemented by Creative Associates International in partnership with Cultivate Labs and King’s College London.

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